Analysis from the Colliers Q2 2026 report – rising demand and prospects for the warehouse market

01.10.2026

Following the second quarter of 2026, the Polish warehouse market continues to see high tenant activity. Colliers’ data for the first half of the year points to rising demand, a fall in vacancy rates and a reduction in space under construction. For businesses planning to expand, this means they need to secure a suitable warehouse…

In our previous analysis covering Q1 2026, we highlighted the return of high tenant activity. A summary of the first half of the year allows us to assess the future direction of these trends and their significance for companies seeking warehouse and production space.

In this article, you will learn:

What the key indicators for the warehouse market in Poland were after the second quarter of 2026, according to the Colliers report.
Why the fall in the vacancy rate and the reduction in new supply are forcing companies to reserve space earlier.
How market parameters changed between Q1 and Q2 2026.
How standard warehouses differ from facilities developed under the BTS (Build-to-Suit) model.
Which trends (energy efficiency, locations along the A2/S3 in western Poland) will dominate the years 2027–2028.

The warehouse market after Q2 2026 – key figures

According to Colliers, approximately 3.5 million m² of warehouse space was let in the first half of the year, representing a year-on-year increase of around 20 per cent. At the end of June, the total stock stood at nearly 37.5 million m², whilst the vacancy rate stood at 6.2 per cent.

Indicator First half of the year / end of Q2 2026 Comment by BTS Development

Indicator	H1 2026 / End of Q2 2026	BTS Development Comment
Demand in H1 2026	Approx. 3.5 million m²	High tenant activity supports the development of well-matched projects.
New supply in H1 2026	Approx. 1.2 million m²	New facilities expand the available offer, but availability depends on prior commercialization.
Total stock	Nearly 37.5 million m²	Projects should stand out through functionality and location.
Vacancy rate	6.2%	Availability should be assessed for the specific region and unit size.
Space under construction	Approx. 1.3 million m²	Leasing plans should take the schedule of new developments into account.
Pre-leased space under construction	Over 60%	Many companies secure space before the facility is completed.

Data source: Colliers, summary of the first half of 2026.

Q1 vs Q2 2026 – demand is rising, availability is falling

A comparison of the results for both quarters shows that increased tenant activity was accompanied by a reduction in new supply and a fall in vacancy rates.

Indicator Q1 2026 Q2 2026 Change

Indicator	Q1 2026	Q2 2026	Change
Quarterly demand	Approx. 1.6 million m²	Approx. 1.9 million m²*	Increase of approx. 19%
New supply in the quarter	Approx. 650,000 m²	Approx. 550,000 m²*	Decrease of approx. 15%
Vacancy rate	7.2%	6.2%	Decrease of 1 percentage point
Space under construction	Approx. 1.5 million m²	Approx. 1.3 million m²	Decrease of approx. 13%

Demand and new supply for Q2 were calculated as the difference between Colliers’ rounded figures for the first half of the year and the results for Q1. Quarterly figures and calculated percentage changes are approximate.

Source: Colliers’ publications on Q1 and the first half of 2026.

From BTS Development’s perspective, this trend suggests the need for earlier lease planning. A company preparing for expansion should check the availability of space in advance, particularly if it requires a warehouse with specific parameters or needs to commence operations by a specific date.

Large spaces require advance planning

Colliers highlights a reduction in the availability of units exceeding 20,000 m².

However, this does not mean conditions are uniform across the country. A company may find numerous offers in a chosen region, yet still struggle to select a facility that meets its operational requirements.

It is therefore advisable to begin the search for a warehouse by defining the requirements: floor area, storage height, number of loading bays, floor specifications, energy requirements, and the proportions of warehouse, production and office space. These clearly defined criteria allow for a more efficient comparison of available premises, including the possibility of bespoke development.

In our view, collaborating with a developer at the design stage also allows time to plan the move, install equipment and commission processes. The property schedule should form part of the company’s development plan.

Trends for the coming months – vacancy rates and rents

With demand remaining high and new supply limited, Colliers forecasts that vacancy rates could fall to 5–6 per cent by the end of 2026. In locations where modern warehouses are in short supply, a moderate rise in rents is also possible. This scenario depends on tenants’ future activity.

For companies planning to lease premises, this means they need to analyse three factors simultaneously: the availability of suitable units, the completion dates of new developments, and the total cost of ownership.

Rent alone should not be the deciding factor. Energy, transport, maintenance and fit-out costs can significantly affect a location’s cost-effectiveness. It is therefore worth comparing offers in relation to how the warehouse will actually be used.

Outlook for 2027–2028 – which facilities are likely to gain an advantage?

Results from two quarters do not constitute a reliable forecast for the coming years. However, they do help to identify trends which, in BTS Development’s view, are worth considering when making long-term decisions.

Alignment with the tenant’s processes

Warehouses designed with a company’s specific needs in mind may gain an advantage. The layout of the space, installations, transport services and staff facilities should support day-to-day operations.

For companies with specific requirements, it is worth considering the BTS model, i.e. the development of a facility tailored to the needs of a specific occupier. The suitability of this approach depends on the scale of operations, technical requirements and the time available to prepare the development.

Operational and energy efficiency

An assessment of the property should cover its entire useful life. A functional layout of the warehouse, solutions to reduce energy consumption and efficient organisation of deliveries can influence operating costs for many years to come.

It is therefore advisable to combine the design of the facility with an analysis of future warehousing or production processes.

Potential for further growth

A company selecting a warehouse for the long term should take into account the possibility of scaling up its operations. Increasing floor space, expanding installations or reorganising processes may help avoid the need for another relocation.

The flexibility of the investment should therefore be assessed at the location selection stage.

Western Poland – space for business growth

According to BTS Development, Western Poland will remain a key area for companies serving the domestic market and customers in Western Europe. The proximity to the German market and the A2 and S3 motorway corridors should be considered in the context of the company’s actual delivery routes.

However, the attractiveness of a specific project is also determined by access to a road junction, the availability of staff, technical infrastructure and the potential for expansion. Combining these elements with the appropriate warehouse specifications forms the basis for a long-term location decision.

Commentary by BTS Development

A comparison of Q1 and Q2 shows that selecting the right space requires careful planning. For a company, the available floor area, the functionality of the facility and the start date for operations are all important factors.

BTS Development is expanding its portfolio of warehouse and production facilities in western Poland, combining project design, development and property management. This enables the company to take the client’s needs into account at every stage of the collaboration.

Are you planning to rent a warehouse or expand a production facility? Take a look at BTS Development’s projects and talk to us about space tailored to your business.