The Polish warehouse market has reached a record 34.5 million m² of space, but with vacancy rates reaching 19% in the Lubuskie region, there is a paradoxical shortage of facilities meeting modern standards. German companies looking for nearshoring space are running into a fundamental problem: available warehouses don’t meet their technical, location, and environmental requirements.

The quality gap phenomenon in the warehouse market is a structural mismatch between the technical parameters of available facilities and the evolving operational requirements of today’s tenants. The problem particularly affects western Poland – a region strategic for nearshoring from Germany to Poland, where despite high vacancy rates there is a shortage of Class A warehouses meeting the standards of international companies.

Scale of the Problem: Market Data for Western Poland in 2025

Lubuskie Region – Record Vacancy Amid a Quality Deficit

The Lubuskie region has the highest vacancy rate in Poland – 19-20% in Q4 2024, more than double the national average of 7.5%. Paradoxically, the region is strategic for German investors due to its direct border with Brandenburg and Saxony.

Key regional data:

• Warehouse stock: 2.33 million m² across all of Western Poland (7% of national stock)
• Space under construction: only 30,000 m² (a dramatic drop in new investment)
• Rental rates: €3.40-4.30/m²/month – the lowest in the country
• Main locations: BTS Park Zielona Góra, BTS Park Gorzów Wielkopolski

Wielkopolskie and Zachodniopomorskie – A Mixed Picture

Wielkopolskie is performing significantly better with a 7% vacancy rate thanks to the well-developed automotive cluster around BTS Park Poznań West. The region attracts investors thanks to:

• Proximity to the A2 motorway
• Well-developed rail infrastructure
• Access to a skilled workforce from the Poznań metropolitan area

Zachodniopomorskie leverages the potential of the Szczecin-Świnoujście ports, with more than 1 million m² of warehouse space dedicated mainly to e-commerce and maritime logistics.

Anatomy of the Quality Gap – What Is the “Quality Gap”?

Origins of the Problem – How the 2008 Crisis Changed the Market

Before the 2008 financial crisis, speculative development dominated the market – developers built warehouses “on spec,” counting on quickly finding tenants. After the crisis, the business model changed radically:

1. Shift to the BTS model (Build-to-Suit) – construction only after signing a lease agreement
2. Minimizing developer risk – the end of building “for stock”
3. Long-term deficit of modern, ready-to-lease space

As a CBRE Poland report points out, “modern Class A warehouses are now significantly more advanced than suburban facilities built 10-15 years ago.”

Four Pillars of the Quality Gap

1. Technical Mismatch

Most warehouses built between 2000 and 2015 don’t meet today’s standards:

2. Location Problem

Available warehouses are often located in suboptimal locations:

• Far from main transport corridors (A2, S3, S5)
• No access to public transport for employees
• Insufficient road infrastructure for modern truck traffic
• Limited expansion options on small plots

The Świebodzin logistics hub is an example of an optimal location at the A2/S3 intersection, but there are few such locations.

3. Lack of Adaptive Flexibility

Speculative warehouses are characterized by structural rigidity:

• Standard column spacing (24x12m) unsuitable for specific operations
• Fixed office space proportions (5-10% of the area)
• Inability to add refrigeration infrastructure for the food industry
• No possibility of installing production systems

4. ESG Certification Gap

According to Colliers International data:

• 40% of new warehouses obtain BREEAM/LEED certification
• <5% of the existing stock holds environmental certification
• No infrastructure for solar panels (unreinforced roofs)
• Energy-intensive lighting (fluorescent tubes instead of LED)
• No BMS (Building Management System)

More on the benefits of ESG certification and BREEAM systems for reducing OPEX costs.

Specific Problems of Speculative Warehouses

Storage Height – A Key Efficiency Parameter

Robert Kosicki of Mecalux points out: “In Poland, warehouses typically have a height of 10-12 meters, which is suitable for carton warehouses. However, for pallet warehouses, facilities 15-32 meters high are significantly more cost-effective.“

Practical consequences of inadequate height:

• Loss of 40% of storage capacity for the same floor area
• Rent costs per pallet position increase by 25-30%
• Inability to install automated high-storage systems
• Restrictions on the use of high-lift forklifts

A practical example: BTS Park Świebodzin VI offers 14m of storage height, allowing for an additional level of racking versus the standard 10m.

Dock Infrastructure – The Operational Bottleneck

A modern distribution center requires:

• Cross-docking: minimum 2 docks per 1000 m²
• E-commerce: up to 80 docks per 7000 m² (Amazon standard)
• Varied heights: 120cm (truck), 135cm (container), 100cm (van)
• Maneuvering space: 35-40m yard depth

Existing warehouses with 1 dock per 1000 m² are not suitable for intensive logistics operations without costly rebuilding, which is often technically impossible.

Energy Infrastructure – A Barrier to Automation

The situation with power connections is dramatic:

• 3+ years waiting for a new connection from the grid operator (PSE data)
• Power demand growing 15-20% annually (automation, cooling, EV charging)
• Standard 250-500 kW connections are insufficient for modern operations (1-2 MW needed)
• No infrastructure for solar installations (unreinforced roof structures)

Case Studies: Retrofitting vs New Construction

Mercedes-Benz in Września – Choosing New Construction

The German group invested €1 billion in a new electric van factory instead of adapting existing halls. Reasons:

• 18m height requirement for production lines
• Special 10 t/m² floor for industrial robots
• Dedicated 110 kV transformer station
• BREEAM Excellent certification from the ground up

Zalando in Gardno – The Largest Logistics Hub

Zalando built a 130,000 m² distribution center from scratch instead of leasing ready-made space:

• 120 loading docks (impossible in an adaptation)
• Full sorting automation (16m height)
• 5 MW rooftop solar system
• Location on the A6 motorway (Berlin-Szczecin)

BTS Development – A Brownfield Adaptation Model

BTS Development specializes in adapting existing facilities in industrial parks:

• 50-70% savings versus new construction
• 3-6 months of execution versus 12-18 months
• Preserving the building’s “good bones” (structure, location)
• Modernizing only the necessary elements

Examples of successful adaptations:

• BTS Park Świebodzin I-V – a series of production-warehouse halls
• BTS Park Mostki – comprehensive infrastructure with employee accommodation

German Nearshoring as a Catalyst for Change

Scale of the Phenomenon – 6,000 Companies, €40 Billion in Investment

According to PAIH and AHK Polska data:

• 6,000+ German companies present in Poland
• €40 billion in cumulative investment
• 300,000 jobs at German companies
• 30% of all Polish exports go to Germany

Specific Requirements of German Tenants

German companies apply rigorous standards when selecting warehouses:

1. Technical DIN/VDI standards:

• DIN EN 15635 for storage systems
• VDI 2700 for cargo securing
• BGR 234 for warehouse safety

2. Environmental certification:

• Minimum BREEAM Very Good (Excellent preferred)
• Energy audit compliant with ISO 50001
• CO2 emission reduction plan (Scope 1, 2, 3)

3. IT/OT infrastructure:

• Redundant fiber-optic links
• WMS/ERP systems compatible with SAP
• Industry 4.0 infrastructure

An analysis of TCO when choosing between BTS and leasing ready-made space shows that German companies are increasingly choosing tailor-made solutions.

Forecasts for 2025-2026

Base Scenario – Gradual Consolidation

According to forecasts from JLL and BNP Paribas Real Estate:

Macro indicators:

• National vacancy will fall to 6-7% by the end of 2025
• Western Poland: reduction to 15-17% by 2026 (from the current 19-20%)
• New supply: 2.5-3.0 million m² per year (vs 3.7 million m² in 2023)
• BTS dominance: 60% of new projects will be pre-leased

Demand drivers:

1. E-commerce has overtaken logistics as the main driver (35% of demand)
2. Production nearshoring from Asia and Western Europe (25% of demand)
3. 3PL – supply chain consolidation and optimization (20% of demand)
4. Automotive – battery factories and electromobility (15% of demand)

Key Infrastructure Investments

Transport infrastructure development will reduce the location gap:

• S14: Łódź – Poznań – Szczecin (completion 2027)
• Via Baltica/Carpathia: North-South corridor
• CPK: Central Transport Hub as a game-changer (2032+)
• Port expansion: Szczecin-Świnoujście (+50% capacity by 2030)

Technology Trends Shaping the Market

Automation and AI (JLL’s “Logistics Buildings of Tomorrow” report):

• 62% of big-box warehouses will use AI by 2030
• 54% will implement automation and robotics
• ROI from automation: 2-3 years with 24/7 operations
• Employment reduction: -30% but wages up +40%

Sustainable development / ESG:

• 50% of new warehouses will hold BREEAM/LEED certification by 2026
• Solar panels on 30% of roof area (potential 3-5 GW)
• Net-zero warehouses – first projects in Poland by 2027
• EU Taxonomy – mandatory reporting for large companies

Strategic Recommendations for Decision-Makers

For Tenants – A Decision Matrix

0-6 month horizon:

• Lease existing space with minor modifications
• Short-term agreements (1-3 years) while waiting for a better option
• Avoid long-term commitments in unsuitable locations

6-12 month horizon:

• Brownfield retrofit – optimal following due diligence of industrial land
• Pre-leasing in BTS projects under construction
• Consider relocating to a better location

12+ month horizon:

• Greenfield BTS – full control over parameters
• Build-to-Own for strategic operations
• Partnership with a developer such as BTS Development

For Developers – New Business Models

1. Industry specialization instead of universal warehouses:

• Cold storage for the food industry
• Clean rooms for pharmaceuticals
• High storage for e-commerce

2. Value-added services:

• Energy and renewables management
• Automation-as-a-Service
• Comprehensive industrial parks with infrastructure

3. Strategic partnerships:

• Joint ventures with tenants
• Sale-leaseback for balance sheet optimization
• Green bonds for ESG projects

Summary: From Gap to Competitive Advantage

The quality gap in the Polish warehouse market is the paradox of high vacancy rates coexisting with a shortage of suitable space. The problem particularly affects Western Poland, where a 19% vacancy rate in the Lubuskie region coexists with a shortage of warehouses meeting the standards of international companies.

Three key takeaways for the market:

1. Retrofitting > new construction in 60% of cases

• Savings of 50-70% of costs
• Execution time of 3-6 months
• ROI already after 1-2 years

2. Nearshoring is forcing quality

• 6,000 German companies looking for premium space
• ESG certification is becoming the standard
• Automation is changing technical requirements

3. Location remains key

• Proximity to the A2/S3 motorway = -15% transport costs
• Access to workforce = +20% to property value
• Energy infrastructure = conditio sine qua non

The 2025-2026 outlook will bring market stabilization with vacancy rates around 6-7% nationally and a gradual reduction of the problem in Western Poland. The key will be skillful use of existing stock through modernization along with selective construction of new facilities in strategic locations.

Companies that understand the nature of the quality gap and turn it into a competitive advantage – whether through innovative retrofits or strategic BTS projects – will be the main beneficiaries of the transformation of the Polish warehouse market.